Monday, January 18, 2010

What Do Last Nights Golden Globes Mean For The Best Picture Oscar? Nothing!

Last night's Golden Globe's gave us few revelations; Ricky Gervais is HILARIOUS and should host every awards show possible, the trendy TV Comedy will always win (although I do like Glee), and Avatar is apparently the best movie of the year. The last of these however is kid stuff compared the Oscars, the Grand Daddy of them all.

The statement that the Golden Globe winners foretell the Oscars has lost nearly all of its relevancy when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced that there will be ten best picture nominations this year. However, there are important things to keep in mind when looking at this years Best Picture race:

1. The Golden Globes differentiates between Comedy/Musicals and Dramas-In the past there is usually one spot reserved in the five Best Picture Oscar spots - think colllege basketball's conference tournaments that lead up to the national brackets (see Sideways or Little Miss Sunshine). So by that rule The Hangover would have a lock on the fifth Best Picture slot. However, any of the other Comedy/Musical Nominees are more the Academy's flavor. Given the now 10 nominees, there will now be a couple of spots for comedies. What it means: The Hangover, (500) Days of Summer, and It's Complicated/Julie & Julia will get a nomination-non of which will win.

2. History has shown the winners for Best Picture-Drama rarely match with the Oscars-The Hours, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, Babel, Atonement-all movies from the past decade that won Best Picture Drama and failed to win the best picture Oscar. We can put an asterik on The Hours as Chicago won best Comedy/Musical and the best picture Oscar that year. Avatar's win was certainly disheartening, not because its a bad movie but it was in much better company thankfully the odds are still stacked against it. What it means: Per usual, all of the nominations for Best Picture-Drama will carry over to the Oscar's Best Picture Race.

Other factors due to the 10 Nomination rule:

Animation now has a say...kinda-So if you're keeping score my predictions for the nominees leaves 2 slots available. One is pretty much reserved for anything Pixar cranks out that is better than Cars or even A Bugs Life. So Up is a lock. However this poses a predicament for animated films in general. Back in the day, an animated film that makes it into the coveted category is one in a million (in fact only Beauty And The Beast has done it). However, no animated film will ever win the award. So here's the gist: Any animated film that's nominated with nine others for best picture IS the best animated film in the Academy's eyes. Therefore the Animated category loses its prestige as it is actually awarding the second best animated film of the year.

The Mysterious 10th Spot-Here it is the 10th spot left unfilled. If the academy used this slot for the popular Documentary or Foreign film of the year however odds are it will go to a wild card movie like last year's The Dark Knight. Otherwise it could go to another indie film that failed to get some earlier awards love like A Serious Man or District 9.

My roommates can attest that I was upset over Avatar's big win last night however its important to keep cool and remember the Golden Globes mean less than ever in terms of the Oscar race.

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