Alright everybody here it is...the same thing that every magazine, newspaper, and self-proclaimed critic with a blog is posting this week. I'm sorry for the dead time. I will go into who should win, who will win, The Dark Horse and who the academy missed. Keep in mind I haven't seen The Blind Side or Crazy Heart so i won't have much to say about those films.
Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Who Should Win: Monique for Precious-It seems like the supporting categories are always sure things and this year is no different. Monique manages to create arguably the worst mother on film, and then gets a bit of the audiences sympathy from the monologue near the end of the film.
Who Will Win: Monique for Precious-Like I alluded to before, this one is no contest. However, the other reason she will walk away with the trophy is because it will be the films only award that evening.
Dark Horse: Anna Kendrick for Up In The Air-Who knew the tightly wound girl from Rocket Science was this good? She was as close to a foil for George Clooney's character as possible and the heart of the film.
Who Was Snubbed: Melanie Laurent for Inglorious Basterds-Arguably a lead performance but the film is an ensemble piece so she belongs here. Her performance helps save what could've been the boring non bastard part of the film and makes it the best part of the movie.
Best Animated Film
Who Should Win: Up-The 3D glasses got misty in the first 10 minutes but I'm not giving the award for just that scene. The rest of the film was just as good.
Who Will Win: Up-It's Pixar and the movie is really that great.
Dark Horse: The Fantastic Mr. Fox-I haven't seen the film yet but it stands out enough to give it a shot.
Who Was Snubbed: Monster's vs. Aliens 3D- I really enjoyed this funny and charming film that had a surprising amount of substance.
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Bastards-If you haven't seen this brilliant performance yet, what are you doing reading this?
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds-This is a runaway. Nothing else comes close.
Dark Horse: Woody Harrelson for The Messenger-This year is for Woody Harrelson what last year was for Robert Downey Jr. (albeit to a lesser extent). I haven't seen this one yet but I haven enough faith in Harrelson that im gonna call this.
Who Was Snubbed: Peter Sarsgaard for An Education-Even though I knew where the film was going, I was still taken with his charm. I was also surprised at how well his accent came through.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Should Win: Nick Hornby for An Education- A great script from Hornby, who may in fact be one of the best writers of his generation.
Who Will Win: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner for Up In The Air-I believe the Academy is in sync with me on this one. The film is going to get shut out of every category so they'll give it to this heartwarming picture.
Dark Horse: Nick Hornby for An Education-Another case where a great and highly acclaimed film will be shut-out come Sunday night.
Who Was Snubbed: Peter Morgan, David Peace for The Damned United-Great story, and structure. Helped make a sport i have little to no interest in, well interesting.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds-Honestly, it wouldn't stand a chance up against most of the scripts in the adapted category but compared to it's competition, it's the clear front runner - and if Avatar win's for being "Original," it will be a rough night.
Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds-This award is often given to the third runner-up (Eternal Sunshine). While The Hurt Locker is an academy favorite (and one of mine) it's screenplay isn't as defined as Bastards.
Dark Horse: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen for A Serious Man-Sadly, I think the Coen's film will go home empty handed come Sunday night but then again the Academy loves the Coens and they may just get away with this one.
Who Was Snubbed: (500) Days of Summer - My pick for snub of the year but all that aside - The structure and dialogue blew me away.
Best Actress in a Lead Role
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan for An Education-What a discovery! It's one thing to act as a child and adult but to be a child who thinks shes an adult? Brilliant.
Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side-Bullock is one of those actors whose appeal isn't a mystery to me but the way women absolutely LOVE her is a little unclear to me. Again, clearly a favorite in an overall weak category. Should win no problem.
Dark Horse:Gabourey Sidibe for Precious-As a white, upper middle class male from the Chicago suburbs, I was worried that I wouldn't be able to connect with the lead character or the film for that matter. Sidibe drew me in and blew me away. Even with a weaker category this year, I'm bummed she isn't getting the hype she deserves.
Who was Snubbed: Zooey Deschanell for (500) Days of Summer-This is the role Deschanell was born to play. Not only does she play a Manic-Pixie Dream Girl but she plays a parody of one as well.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Should Win: George Clooney for Up In The Air-There should be an asterik on this one as I've only seen two of the performances nominated (Clooney and Renner). However I did really enjoy Clooney here and whenever he retires, this will be one of the roles we remember him for.
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart-I haven't seen the film yet but Bridges seems to be the runaway favorite. It may be a bit of a life time achievement award but its well deserved.
Dark Horse: Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker-Anyone who can show both sides of an Iraqi soldiers persona and do it seamlessly deserves some recognition. I just can't see him withstanding Clooney or Bridges.
Who Was Snubbed: Joseph Gordon-Levitt for (500) Days of Summer- In The 40 Year-Old Virgin Paul Rudd speaks about love. "Of course it's horrible. It's suffering and it's pain and it's... You know, you lose weight and then you put back on weight, and then you, you know, you call them a bunch of times and you try and email, and then they move or they change their email, but that's just love. " Joseph Gordon-Levitt captures all of this perfectly and it's a shame he won't be recognized.
Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker-Bigelow really surprised me here as I never thought the woman behind Blue Steel and K19: The Widow Maker, would make a film like this. Credit is also due for putting together a movie about Iraq that doesn't suck.
Who Will Win: Jame's Cameron for Avatar-I've ignored, and had a few jabs, at James Cameron's epic thus far. I should be clear that I actually enjoyed the movie despite all its flaws. Let's face it Jimmy Cameron knows how to put together an action sequence and the last hour is a perfect example. Also, the Academy isn't gonna leave the Navi without their own little tree of life.
Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds-He won a writing oscar in 1995 but one of today's most iconic directors still hasn't won for his work behind the camera. It'd be nice if the academy made this write but unfortunately the competition is too heated.
Who Was Snubbed: Marc Webb for (500) Days of Summer-If it isn't clear, I loved this movie and first-time feature director Marc Webb did an exceptional job with the popular dance sequence, and the split screen scene. Again the competition is steep but a nod would have been nice.
Who Should Win: Inglourious Basterds (Lawrence Bender)-What better film to win best picture than one that has such a love for other movies. Yes, this is the film geek in me speaking but very few films get better with multiple viewings. Besides, Tarantino is due.
Who Will Win: The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicholas Chartier, Greg Shapiro)-A great movie regardless of any of the recent criticism of the films depiction of soldiers or Bigelow's out spoken political agenda behind the film. It had me on the edge of my seat the way very few other films did and everyone else is finally taking notice.
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds (Lawrence Bender)-The way the ballots are made this year actually hurts films that are heavy favorites (Avatar & The Hurt Locker), making room for movies like Basterds to pull the upset. Still, bomb squads in Iraq and giant blue smurfs may be just to big to stop.
Who Was Snubbed: (500) Days of Summer-Even with ten nominations, the academy still gets it wrong. The closest thing we will ever come to a modern day Annie Hall.
Bonus Snub: Stu's Song from The Hangover for Best Original Song-If the academy really wanted to get ratings for the telecast, they would've let Ed Helms tickle the ivories for this hilarious song.
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